nrk.no

Is it possible to replace Facebook?

Kategorier: Det sosiale nettet,English-articles,Forskning,Internett & Kommentar

foto av Clay Shirky på en scene foran en håndskrevet plakat med teksten Facebook
Clay Shirky på Nordiske Mediedager Spesial 2011, foto Anders Hofseth, NRKbeta 2011 Creative Commons

Dette er en kommentar. Den bygger på skribentens egne analyser, meninger og vurderinger.

According to internet expert Clay Shirky, Facebook is now so big it cannot be replaced by a competitor anymore.

This is an English language version of Er Facebook blitt uerstattelig? published yesterday.

When Clay Shirky visited Norway last week, I got the opportunity to interview him for the NRK P2 show Kurer. As I was prepping myself for the interview by reading his 2008 book Here Comes Everybody, this illustration caught my eye:

Expanding networks

Facsimile from Here Comes Everybody by Clay Shirky, Kindle Edition Faksimile fra "Here Comes Everybody" av Clay Shirky (Kindle-utgaven)
Facsimile from Here Comes Everybody by Clay Shirky, Kindle Edition
Faksimile fra «Here Comes Everybody» av Clay Shirky (Kindle-utgaven)

The point being that the number of connections between people expand significantly faster than the number of people. From 5 to 15 people is 3 times the people, but 10,5 times the connections.

The replacability of social networks

This casts light on something we’ve been discussing here at NRKbeta lately: Is it possible for Google+ or other services to replace Facebook, the way Facebook outmaneuvered MySpace way back when?

Say I were to leave Facebook for Google+. For that to be a success, my 400 Facebook friends (or at least those important to me) would have to come along as well. And their 400. And these people’s 400. Et Cetera.

That this could happen isn’t totally impossible, but it’s beginning to look less probable. The anchorage the number of connections between people represents, are several orders of magnitude over what MySpace had. A mass migration to a new platform is not a thing undertaken as a collective effort on a random Thursday. The effort each of us would have to undertake to start something resembling our Facebook-life today anew, on a new platform, is massive.

Facebook’s functions grow in number

When I see people around me starting to use the Facebook chat instead of the phone, I think were beginning to see a technological shift in society. We can see as well that several businesses are using Facebook as their main channel for relations to the public, because it is practical and effective. Maybe Facebook is on its way to becoming a long term monopoly, the way Bell Telephone Company and its successor AT&T controlled the US telephone network from its inception and the next hundred years.

What does that mean?

According to TNS Interbuss, 73 % of people here in Norway are using Facebook on a monthly basis. And we’ve seen that roughly 40 % of young people’s online time is spent at Facebook. Those are big numbers.

During the Q&A after Clay Shirky’s presentation at Nordiske Mediedager Spesial, I asked Clay Shirky what he thought the penetration of Facebook means. This is his answer:

We recommend watching these three minutes of video. For the restless, the ultra short version goes something like: Shirky previously thought Facebook could be replaced by a competitor. He can’t see anymore how that could come about. And he doesn’t seem all that happy about this.

9 kommentarer

  1. Forslag: når dere har artikler på engelsk, hva med å ha viktige navigasjonselementer, info om kommentering, etc. på engelsk også? Kanskje det også er mulig å linke utelukkende til andre artikler skrevet på engelsk på høyre side.

    Svar på denne kommentaren

  2. renaissance chambara | Ged Carroll – Links of the day | 在网上找到

    […] Is it possible to replace Facebook? | NRK Beta – Clay Shirky doesn’t think so and he’s worried about it, you should be too […]

    Svar på denne kommentaren

  3. renaissance chambara | Ged Carroll – Building your business in Mark’s house

    […] Is it possible to replace Facebook? – interesting article by the research and development team at Norwegian state broadcaster NRK […]

    Svar på denne kommentaren

  4. Mirror: Think Like the Internet – or How to Fight Facebook, and Win « test

    […] a recent conference in Norway, Clay Shirky was asked what he thinks of the domination of Facebook. His answer is discouraging. You can see it below, but in short he says that Facebook might now be […]

    Svar på denne kommentaren

  5. Mozilla contributor

    […] a recent con­fe­rence in Nor­way, Clay Shirky was asked what he thinks of the domi­na­tion of Face­book. His answer is dis­coura­ging. You can see it below, but in short he says that Face­book might […]

    Svar på denne kommentaren

  6. Think Like the Internet – or How to Fight Facebook, and Win | børge forteller om livet

    […] a recent con­fe­rence in Nor­way, Clay Shirky was asked what he thinks of the domi­na­tion of Face­book. His answer is dis­coura­ging. You can see it below, but in short he says that Face­book might […]

    Svar på denne kommentaren

  7. Occupy Facebook with democratic alternatives… « UKIAH BLOG

    […] a recent conference in Norway, Clay Shirky was asked what he thinks of the domination of Facebook. His answer is discouraging. You can see it below, but in short he says that Facebook might now be […]

    Svar på denne kommentaren

Legg igjen en kommentar

Din e-postadresse vil ikke bli publisert. Obligatoriske felt er merket med *. Les vår personvernserklæring for informasjon om hvilke data vi lagrer om deg som kommenterer.